AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas Deals: Eni signed a 25-year contract to become exclusive operator of Venezuela’s Junín 5 heavy-oil field, aiming to revive production in the Orinoco Belt. Energy Diplomacy: Delcy Rodríguez kicked off a bilateral strategic agenda in Suriname, while analysts say Trinidad and Tobago’s softer tone toward Rodríguez signals pragmatism to secure natural gas access. US-Venezuela Oil Fallout: Multiple reports keep spotlighting the political and market uncertainty around the US-backed Venezuela oil framework, with investors watching timelines, marketing terms, and what happens after 2028. Sanctions & Security: The US expanded sanctions tied to Hezbollah and Iranian proxies, tightening the broader compliance pressure around regional trade and shipping. Local Economy & Reconstruction: Venezuela asked engineers and civil firms to join earthquake repair and reinforcement projects, including debris removal and training/certification for new roles. Non-Oil Exports: Venezuela showcased coffee exports in Kazakhstan as part of efforts to diversify beyond oil. Mining & Community Governance: Héctor Silva promoted a “communal democracy” approach in Bolívar’s mining push, including new services and education plans for the Bosco community.

Venezuela Oil Deal Politics: A new Rasmussen poll finds 50% of likely U.S. voters approve of Trump’s Venezuela oil deal, with 31% strongly approving, as Trump also claims prices will drop right after the Nov. 3 midterms. U.S. Access to Minerals: Reuters reports the U.S. is exploring expanded access to Venezuela’s mining sector, including gold and other critical minerals, building on OFAC authorizations. Operator Push in Venezuela: At a Barclays energy conference, Chevron and Exxon executives discussed “factory-type” development and reiterated that Venezuela remains a key growth target, with Chevron signaling major investment plans. Airport Reconstruction: Maiquetía’s Simón Bolívar International Airport has restored over half of pre-earthquake capacity, supporting renewed connectivity while reconstruction continues. Diplomacy in the Region: Marco Rubio’s Latin America tour emphasized security cooperation and anti-drug efforts, including framing Venezuela as a partner target in the hemisphere’s security agenda. Legal Pressure on Maduro Circle: Nicolás Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores, is seeking release from a New York jail on health grounds, asking for restrictive home confinement. Energy Market Backdrop: Global gas prices rose sharply amid Iran-related supply fears, keeping energy affordability front and center for voters.

US–Venezuela Energy Deal: Trump’s team is leaning on a new U.S.–Venezuela oil agreement that gives Washington majority control over major reserves, while critics warn it won’t translate into lower U.S. gas prices and could deepen concerns about sovereignty and profit flows. Chevron Scale-Up: Chevron says it plans to more than double its Venezuela rig count and push output toward 600,000 barrels per day by 2031, backed by a $7B+ investment plan—an aggressive bet despite political and sanctions risk. Labor & Business Coordination: Venezuela’s President Delcy Rodríguez met unions and business groups to align on labor stability, social peace, and productive development, with PDVSA leadership in the room. Science for Production: MINCYT highlighted progress under the Venezuela Renace Plan, pointing to new lab and agri-food initiatives (including 3D printing and citrus disease attention) aimed at boosting domestic output. Housing After Quakes: Rodríguez led a nationwide handover of 151 homes for June 24 earthquake victims, bringing total quake housing solutions to 528 across multiple states. Regional Diplomacy: Trinidad and Tobago signaled a possible high-level meeting with Venezuela’s acting president on the UNGA sidelines, suggesting a thaw after recent fallout. Venezuelans in the US: Coverage of Venezuelan earthquake survivors in the U.S. shows how recovery and uncertainty continue to ripple through the diaspora.

U.S.-Venezuela Energy Deal: Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the Trump administration’s Venezuela oil partnership, arguing it will redirect royalties away from “corrupt officials” and reduce dependence on China, Russia and Iran. PDVSA & Contracts: PDVSA chief Héctor Obregón backed the agreement as “win-win,” saying Venezuela will receive taxes/royalties while U.S. demand is supplied; the deal centers on 17 fields and a 25-year productive participation structure. Chevron Push: Chevron is set to spend about $7B to more than double output toward 600,000 bpd by 2031, a timeline analysts warn could be derailed by political volatility. Minerals Beyond Oil: Reuters reports Washington is seeking expanded access to Venezuela’s minerals, including gold, via possible critical-minerals steps and company outreach. Curaçao Influence & Refining: New U.S. investigative reporting alleges Curaçao’s state-linked refinery network paid $200,000 into a Washington influence effort tied to Venezuela policy, while Curaçao’s own refinery plans appear to be shifting from restart to terminal/logistics. Meta & Venezuela Info Space: Meta began testing Community Notes in 16 Spanish-speaking countries including Venezuela, aiming to replace professional fact-checking with crowdsourced context. Caribbean Queen Conch: A study warns marine protected areas for queen conch may lose suitable climate conditions abruptly by mid-century, threatening livelihoods across the region. U.S. Immigration Spillover: TPS protections for about 200,000 Salvadorans in the U.S. are in limbo as deadlines near, amid broader Trump-era TPS rollbacks that have also touched Venezuela-linked cases.

U.S.-Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump’s team says it secured access to 65B+ barrels of Venezuelan oil via a Pentagon-backed stake in NABEP, but analysts and critics warn the “gas price relief” promise is politically risky and may not translate quickly for consumers. U.S. Energy Emergency Powers: Trump expanded the number of Cabinet officials who can trigger emergency energy actions under the Defense Production Act, adding Interior alongside Commerce—another sign energy policy is being used as leverage. Minerals Push Beyond Oil: Reuters-sourced reporting says Washington is also seeking broader access to Venezuela’s mineral wealth, especially gold, with possible new steps to open the mining sector to U.S. investment. Regional Trade & Security: Marco Rubio kicked off a Colombia-Ecuador-Peru tour, signaling “good, solid” trade deals and deeper security cooperation while defending U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s oil sector. Infrastructure & Recovery: Venezuela’s acting president announced additional earthquake housing repairs in Caracas under Plan Venezuela Renace, and Venezuela reactivated the Chivacoa–Barquisimeto rail service after years of closure.

U.S.-Venezuela Minerals Push: Reuters reports Washington is seeking greater access to Venezuela’s mineral wealth, including gold, with officials weighing a possible executive order on critical minerals and holding talks with mining companies; the plan would run in parallel with the recent U.S. oil push. Mining Sector Clarity Gap: A Reuters factbox highlights confusion in Venezuela’s mining data—reserves vs. resources have been mixed in past publications—raising due-diligence and investment risk. Oil Deal Politics: Multiple reports frame the broader strategy as expanding U.S. control and influence beyond oil, while Venezuelans and investors question what it means for sovereignty and future returns. Curaçao Refining Fallout (Regional Energy): Curaçao’s 2BAYS faces liquidity pressure and unpaid obligations tied to Global Oil and Curoil, as the island shifts toward terminal and logistics services; environmental group Clean Air Everywhere doubts the economics of asphalt production tied to Venezuelan crude flows. Latin America Security Pivot: Rubio’s tour of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru spotlights a new U.S. regional agenda—security, anti-drug efforts, and trade—aimed at aligning pro-Washington governments.

PDVSA Output Push: PDVSA chief Héctor Obregón says production is on an upward path and targets exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day by 2027 after new agreements, with the 2026 legal framework aimed at bringing private capital in under Hydrocarbon Productive Participation Contracts. Chevron Expansion: Chevron announced it will invest $7B over five years to double output to about 600,000 bpd in the Orinoco Belt via its Petroindependencia JV with PDVSA. Eni Deal in Orinoco: Eni signed a 25-year production-sharing agreement for Junin 5, pledging $1.5B annually to expand output and take over operator duties. GeoPark Enters Venezuela: GeoPark will acquire the Bare Block under a 25-year contract, funding capex and targeting major production growth by the end of the decade. Local Trade for Fish: La Guaira’s fishing business roundtable delivered 21 trade agreements for 103,320 kilos of fish per month, linking fishermen councils with processing and marketing firms. Agriculture Storage: Minister Vladimir Padrino López inspected Silos La Flecha, saying winter 2026 cereal collection will store over 2.5 million metric tons for food security. Air Connectivity: CONVIASA activated 19 domestic and international routes from Maiquetía to keep business travel moving while airport capacity ramps up. Human Rights & Politics: Rights advocates push amnesty and reparations proposals for political prisoners, while debate continues over Venezuela’s post-oil-deal direction and sovereignty.

Oil Output Update: Hydrocarbons Minister Paula Henao says Venezuela’s production has climbed to 1,236,000 barrels per day, crediting workers, legal reforms, and new private-sector alliance schemes like CPPH. US-Venezuela Oil Deal Politics: A fresh wave of U.S. lawmakers and opposition voices is pushing for more clarity on Trump’s Venezuela oil agreement, including questions about who could profit and what happens to the deal after 2028. Investor/Policy Uncertainty: Analysts and business coverage keep flagging the same risk mix—inflation fears, exchange-rate gaps, and political backlash—despite improved oil-export momentum. Property Restitution Push: A proposal calls for an independent commission to investigate alleged seizures and irregular expropriations under Chávez and Maduro, with a public registry of claims and possible restitution. Earthquake Aftermath & Migration: Spain’s Canary Islands lawmakers are urging restoration of humanitarian residence for Venezuelans affected by the June earthquakes, while families continue searching for missing people. Regional Energy Moves: Venezuela is also reported to be signing/advancing new energy deals with partners in the region as it tries to accelerate recovery and production.

US-Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: Energy Secretary Chris Wright denied the U.S. is “stealing” Venezuela’s oil, while critics warn the Trump-era pact gives Washington outsized control over vast reserves and leaves Venezuela’s future hostage to U.S. politics after 2028. Chevron Expansion: Chevron confirmed a major Venezuela push, including a $7bn plan to expand output, as Eni and other partners sign on to new hydrocarbon projects. Geopolitics & Diplomacy: Uruguay’s Lacalle Pou urged a democratic transition in Venezuela and questioned the terms of the U.S.-Venezuela oil agreement, reigniting debate over sovereignty and “exploitation.” Local Governance & Food Systems: Venezuela showcased its grassroots fisheries governance model at PPE 2026, with over 113,000 fishermen and aquaculture workers organized nationwide. Gold & Risk: Gold Reserve announced a share buyback while pursuing recovery tied to Venezuela-linked arbitration, signaling continued high-stakes exposure to the country’s mining future.

US-Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright denied the U.S. is “stealing” Venezuelan oil, arguing Washington’s leverage and the deal’s structure should boost royalties and taxes for Caracas. Geopolitics & China Debt: Multiple reports frame the move as a new Western Hemisphere rivalry with China, with U.S. officials saying Beijing won’t claim revenue from new Venezuelan production—raising questions on repayment of China-linked debt. Deal Mechanics: The U.S. is set to take a 35% stake via warrants designed to prevent dilution as North American Blue Energy Partners raises capital; the State Department also gets a right to buy 20% of output at cost. Local Business Reality: Venezuelans and diaspora voices say the resource is “in the ground” and benefits are unclear, while concerns grow over transparency and sovereignty. Regional Energy Links: Trinidad and Tobago business groups welcomed renewed engagement with Venezuela, but experts warn any crude supply for T&T’s refinery depends on U.S. priorities. Venezuela Economy Signals: PDVSA officials tout Orinoco Belt development plans tied to foreign agreements, aiming to ramp output—though critics question timelines and national control. Aviation Update: Plus Ultra resumes Venezuela routes from Sept. 8, signaling gradual reopening of travel links. Central Banking: Central banks bought 23 tonnes of gold in July, with China leading—another sign of cautious global risk appetite.

US-Venezuela Oil Deal: Washington is set to take a 35% stake via the Pentagon in North American Blue Energy Partners, tied to Alejandro Betancourt, with the State Department able to buy 20% of output at cost—giving the US access to about one-fifth of Venezuela’s crude reserves for decades. Political Backlash: Venezuelans and opposition figures say the pact deepens authoritarian rule and sovereignty loss, while US lawmakers demand more transparency on profits and beneficiaries. Industry Reaction: US oil executives warn the structure could disrupt other negotiations and won’t quickly translate into cheaper fuel. PDVSA Recovery Plan: PDVSA’s VP says agreements targeting the Orinoco Belt aim to lift production toward 1.3M bpd in 2026 and 1.5M in 2027, relying on infrastructure buildout and foreign operator partnerships. New Operators: Eni signed to become operator of the Junín-5 field (25-year term), while Chevron and other majors expand under the broader US-backed framework. Regional Trade Diplomacy: Trinidad and Tobago’s AMCHAM welcomed renewed engagement with Venezuela, pushing for action beyond energy into trade and investment. Aviation: Plus Ultra resumes flights to Venezuela starting Sept. 8. Environment & Wildlife: Delcy Rodríguez signed laws and alliances to support the International Big Cat Alliance and rehabilitate zoos with India’s Vantara.

US-Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: The U.S. secured access to about one-fifth of Venezuela’s crude reserves via a Pentagon-backed stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, while Venezuelans and opposition figures warn the pact could entrench an illegitimate government and short-circuit democratic change. Pentagon/Betancourt Scrutiny: Alejandro Betancourt—previously linked to U.S. money-laundering probes tied to PDVSA—now sits at the center of the arrangement, raising fresh questions about who benefits and how clean the deal really is. Chevron/Eni Expansion: Eni signed to take over as operator of the Junín-5 oilfield, and Chevron is set to expand operations with a multi-billion plan aimed at boosting output. Local Impact & Uncertainty: Venezuelans in the U.S. say the oil deal brings little comfort as deportation pressure continues. Regional Trade Reset: Trinidad and Tobago business groups are pushing for renewed non-energy trade and investment with Venezuela as relations thaw.

US-Venezuela Oil Deal Scrutiny: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi urged President Trump to disclose whether he, family, allies or donors could profit from the Venezuela oil agreement before more US taxpayer money is committed. Deal Structure Details: A US official said Washington’s 35% stake in North American Blue Energy Partners is protected via “penny warrants” to prevent dilution as the project raises capital. China Watch: Analysts warn the deeper US role in Venezuela could complicate China’s Latin America strategy, with Beijing facing uncertainty over future crude flows and repayment of billions in loans. Local Business & Tourism: Venezuela’s tourism minister said the country is attracting investment and building an expanding tourism investment catalog, including coastal “work routes” to revive local commerce after earthquakes. Inflation Update: Venezuela’s central bank reported August inflation slowed to 8.9% month-on-month, citing improved distribution channels and less FX pressure. Energy Recovery on the Ground: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met oil workers and pushed output growth, while Venezuela signed a Miyamoto International contract to remove 3 million tons of earthquake debris and strengthen seismic risk management.

US-Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called the Trump oil agreement “illegitimate,” arguing the Miraflores team lacks democratic mandate to negotiate Venezuela’s resources. Energy & Markets: The US says the pact will boost output and limit China/Russia influence, but experts and Venezuelans question whether it will translate into near-term benefits—while US diesel and fuel costs stay under pressure. Chevron Expansion: Chevron confirmed plans to expand in Venezuela, with a reported $7bn investment aimed at doubling production over the next five years. Mining Licenses Loosened: OFAC amended licenses to add coal to existing authorizations for Venezuelan mineral trade, while keeping tight controls over payments and project execution. Inflation Update: Venezuela’s central bank reported August inflation slowed to 8.9% (from 19.9% in July). Airport Reopens: Simón Bolívar International Airport resumed operations via temporary terminals, running at about 45% capacity after earthquake damage. Tourism Push: Tourism Minister Daniella Cabello met diplomats to attract more UK visitors, including plans for the London World Travel Market.

US–Venezuela Oil Deal: Chevron confirmed a $7B expansion in Venezuela, targeting roughly 600,000 bpd and updated JV terms, as the broader US framework gives Washington majority access to about one-fifth of Venezuela’s proven reserves—sparking fresh debate over sovereignty, transparency, and whether any benefits will reach Venezuelans quickly. Energy Policy & PDVSA: PDVSA chief Héctor Obregón said Venezuela’s goal is to move from “largest reserve” to “largest producer,” pointing to Hydrocarbons Law reforms and new participation contracts meant to attract investment and boost output. Regional Diplomacy (T&T–Venezuela): Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela agreed a roadmap to restart cooperation across trade, energy, agriculture, environment, and collective security after a thaw signal from Caracas talks. Humanitarian & Rights: Venezuela’s CONARE reiterated its asylum tradition while reviewing refuge requests case-by-case, emphasizing legal rigor and human sensitivity. Disaster Response Context: A new UN push for a global disaster-response rulebook highlights how Venezuela’s recent earthquake experience reinforces the need for faster international coordination.

Oil & Investment: Chevron confirmed a $7bn, five-year expansion in Venezuela, aiming to more than double output to about 600,000 barrels a day, after receiving additional Orinoco Belt acreage and updated JV terms with PDVSA. US-Venezuela Deal Fallout: Maria Corina Machado said only a “serious, democratic government” can bring investor stability and criticized the US oil pact as negotiated with an “illegitimate regime,” while Venezuelans voiced anger over the deal’s sovereignty implications. Diplomacy in Focus: Trinidad and Tobago’s Foreign Minister Sean Sobers arrived in Caracas for talks to strengthen ties, regional security, and economic cooperation after a period of strained relations. Sanctions Talks: Delcy Rodríguez said Caracas and Washington are still discussing sanctions relief and conditions for elections, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in town to push energy cooperation. Legal/Enforcement: US prosecutors moved to charge an ICE officer with lying over the shooting of a Venezuelan immigrant in Minneapolis. Business Climate: Analysts warned the new oil deals won’t quickly lower fuel prices, given the heavy crude and infrastructure constraints.